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概要
The Delta Variant: The Choice between Spreading Vaccines or Guns
Umberto Cornelli
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the whole world since 2020 and, despite the vaccination programme under way, it is still not under control, apparently due to the Delta variant.
Objective: To compare the death rates following the vaccination campaign in 52 countries (47 European countries, the USA, India, Russia, Brazil, and Mexico). Weekly periods between August 2020 and 26 July 2021 were considered. The correlation between the number of vaccinations, LEEDELS data (Life Expectancy, Ecological, Demographic/ Social and Lifestyle Variables) and defence expenditure will be calculated to determine which variables are connected with vaccination campaigns.
Methods: The number of weekly deaths and vaccinations were retrieved for the 52 countries from the WHO coronavirus dashboard. The LEEDELS data and military expenses were taken from the Atlante Geografico Agostini 2020 and CIA World Factbook 2020-2021. The weekly death ratio was calculated considering a time lag of three weeks between infection and death. The statistical evaluation of the correlation between LEEDELS data and number of vaccinations was calculated using Spearman's ρ.
Results: The death rates in the European countries considered following the start of the vaccination campaign are lower than in the other countries analysed. The data for the last week (26 July) in Europe, the USA, India, Brazil, Russia, and Mexico were 3.91, 19.03, 13.02, 21.38, 31.78, and 54.49 respectively. The LEEDELS data relating to wealth were all positively correlated with the number of shots administered, while defence expenditure was negatively correlated.
Conclusion: Vaccination seems to be effective in protecting against COVID-19, but it cannot be employed as the sole measure against viral infection since there is still a threat that some countries (the USA, Russia, India, Brazil, and Mexico) export the infection in the form of the Delta or other variants. The resources to provide and administer vaccines are more fundamental than defence expenditure.