Ryoko Sato
Background: Universal access to vaccines is crucial in protecting the population from deadly diseases. This study presents the prevalence of vaccine stockouts in Nigeria and examines the correlation between the vaccine stockouts and vaccine take-up.
Methods: We use the unique administrative data of monthly vaccine stockouts at each health facility in Nigeria. To evaluate the correlation between the stockouts and the vaccine take-up, the administrative data was merged to Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2013. We used the logistic regression for the correlational study.
Results: The prevalence of vaccine stockouts in Nigeria is high: 82.7 percent between 2012 and 2013. We find the negative correlation between vaccine stockouts and the vaccine take-up. However, we observe the differential correlational pattern depending on the regional vaccine coverage, which we consider as the proxy of the level of demand for vaccines.
Conclusion: We find that, while vaccine stockouts is correlated with the low vaccine take-up on average, the high stockouts is also attributed to the high vaccination coverage in regions with high demand for vaccines. To increase the vaccination rate, it is the most effective to strengthen the health system to reduce vaccine stockouts in regions with the low vaccination coverage.