海岸地帯管理ジャーナル

概要

Beyond the Limits of Present Adaptation Strategies: Exploring Strategies and Measures to Anticipate on Accelerated Sea-Level Rise in the Netherlands

Jos van Alphen*, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Ferdinand Diermanse, Anne Loes Nillesen

Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (SLR) may impose an existential threat to low lying densely populated coastal regions and delta’s like the Netherlands. In 2019, the Dutch government started a research programme to assess soft and hard limits of present strategies on flood risk management and explore additional measures and alternative strategies. Model simulations were performed to determine the impact of SLR on the required coastal protection, and the potential combinations of dike reinforcement, peak storage and pumping capacity to manage extreme flood levels in estuarine areas. In cooperation with local authorities and stakeholders the impact of SLR and potential measures on present and future land use and investment agenda’s on e.g., housing, agriculture and infrastructure was established. Different long-term strategies were defined and explored. There is substantial uncertainty regarding future SLR, and selection of a single strategy is not necessary yet. To deal with extreme SLR and to keep future options open, it is essential to reserve substantial space to expand future flood defences and increase peak water storage.