細菌学および寄生虫学ジャーナル

概要

A Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Evolution in African Countries

Kossi Amouzouvi, Kétévi A. Assamagan*, Somiéalo Azote, Simon H. Connell, Jean Baptiste Fankam Fankam, Fenosoa Fanomezana, Aluwani Guga, Cyrille E. Haliya, Toivo S. Mabote, Francisco Fenias Macucule, Dephney Mathebula, Azwinndini Muronga, Kondwani C. C. Mwale, Ann Njeri, Ebode F. Onyie, Laza Rakotondravohitra, George Zimba

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R_₀, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R_₀ ≤ 4 at the start of the pandemic but have since fallen to R_₀~1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1%-10% of the recovered cases.